Sao Paulo 1-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chapecoense-sc make the trip to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to face Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Wednesday 16 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.06 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.798 / defence 1.006 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.851 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.019. Sao Paulo's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Sao Paulo games / 3 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 29%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Chapecoense-sc 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Sao Paulo 1.06 / Chapecoense-sc 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.798 / def 1.006 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.851 / def 1.402 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Chapecoense-sc xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 16 June 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 39% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (0.80) and Chapecoense-sc's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.85x) against Sao Paulo's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
39%
2.55
31%
3.19
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
1.93
0.87
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.87 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo and Chapecoense-sc finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.06 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.87 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.85 / defence 1.40, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 29%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.