Palmeiras 2-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 20 June 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.31 xG and America Mineiro 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.241 / defence 1.143 | America Mineiro attack 0.610 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 0.829 / away 1.037. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Palmeiras games / 4 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 51% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 21%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | America Mineiro 4.76. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 51% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Palmeiras 1.31 / America Mineiro 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.241 / def 1.143 | America Mineiro attack 0.610 / def 1.276 | league avg home 0.829 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.72
America Mineiro xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs America Mineiro kick off?
Palmeiras vs America Mineiro kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro part of?
Palmeiras vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 51% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Palmeiras and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and America Mineiro in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.61x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.48
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.04
0.72
America Mineiro xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.72 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2023, when Palmeiras 4-0 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out America Mineiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat America Mineiro 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.31 xG and America Mineiro 0.72 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against America Mineiro attack 0.61 / defence 1.28, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 51% | Draw 29% | America Mineiro 21%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.