Ceara 1-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Bahia travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Thursday 17 June 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.52 xG and Bahia 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 1.234 / defence 1.261 | Bahia attack 1.070 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.102. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Ceara games / 3 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 39% | Draw 24% | Bahia 37%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Bahia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 39% | Draw 24% | Bahia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ceara 1.52 / Bahia 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 1.234 / def 1.261 | Bahia attack 1.070 / def 1.386 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Ceara (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Bahia xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Bahia kick off?
Ceara vs Bahia kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Bahia?
Ceara 1 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Ceara vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Bahia part of?
Ceara vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 39% chance of winning, Bahia a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ceara and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Bahia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (1.23) and Bahia's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.12
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ceara xG
Total xG
3.00
1.49
Bahia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ceara and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ceara and 1.49 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Bahia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ceara
2
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Bahia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Ceara 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Ceara 1-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.52 xG and Bahia 1.49 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 1.23 / defence 1.26 against Bahia attack 1.07 / defence 1.39, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 39% | Draw 24% | Bahia 37%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.