Corinthians 1-2 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host RB Bragantino at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 17 June 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 0.77 xG and RB Bragantino 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.813 / defence 1.151 | RB Bragantino attack 1.118 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.019. Data: 3 Corinthians games / 3 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 22% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 49%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | RB Bragantino 2.04. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 22% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Corinthians 0.77 / RB Bragantino 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.813 / def 1.151 | RB Bragantino attack 1.118 / def 1.044 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.31
RB Bragantino xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Corinthians 1 - 2 RB Bragantino.
Where is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino part of?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 22% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Corinthians and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.81) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
22%
4.55
29%
3.49
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.08
1.31
RB Bragantino xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 16.3 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Corinthians and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.31 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Pre-Season
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
5
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, RB Bragantino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Corinthians 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Corinthians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Corinthians 1-2 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.77 xG and RB Bragantino 1.31 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against RB Bragantino attack 1.12 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 22% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 49%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.