Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense host Flamengo at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Arena da Baixada this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 50% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 54% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.891 / defence 1.411 | Flamengo attack 1.428 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 0.942 / away 0.974. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Atletico Paranaense games / 26 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 16% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 61%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Flamengo 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 16% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Atletico Paranaense 0.93 / Flamengo 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.891 / def 1.411 | Flamengo attack 1.428 / def 1.103 | league avg home 0.942 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Flamengo xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 16% chance of winning, Flamengo a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.89) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
16%
6.13
23%
4.36
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.89
1.96
Flamengo xG
6.13
16%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
14%
7.11
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
2%
43.64
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.96 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 8W 4D 14L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 7L across 26 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.85 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 15W 4D 7L in their last 26 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.25 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
3
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Flamengo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 58%, Flamengo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Atletico Paranaense) and 58% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 33%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 58% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Atletico Paranaense's matches and 58% of Flamengo's.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo finished level at 2-2 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.96 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.89 / defence 1.41 against Flamengo attack 1.43 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 16% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 61%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 54%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.