Henan Jianye 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.

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Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 25 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Henan Jianye have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SHANGHAI SIPG away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.10 PPG clear of Henan Jianye over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2023, ended Henan Jianye 2–3 SHANGHAI SIPG — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 50% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 46% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.68 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.868 / defence 0.847 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.766 / defence 0.520. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.221. SHANGHAI SIPG bring a tight defence (rating 0.520, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Henan Jianye's projected output down. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack rating of 1.766, which lifts their away xG to 1.83. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 56 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 57.

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 12% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 64%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 8.15 | Draw 4.22 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (64%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 50% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 40% (last 10 away games).

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