Tianjin Teda 3-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52%, yet in-form Meizhou Kejia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TEDA Football Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Meizhou Kejia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Meizhou Kejia in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 41% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.79 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.879 / defence 0.947 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.972 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Tianjin Teda games / 57 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Meizhou Kejia 4.35. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Meizhou Kejia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 60% | Meizhou Kejia 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.79 / Meizhou Kejia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.879 / def 0.947 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.972 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 52% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.88x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.97x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.99
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.91
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
26.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.12 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 20D 16L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 21W 11D 24L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.32 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (10W 12D 6L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.36 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 20D 16L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.50 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 54%, Meizhou Kejia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 54% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 46% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 54% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Meizhou Kejia 3-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.79 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.97 / defence 1.35, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 41%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.