Tianjin Teda 3-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52%, yet in-form Meizhou Kejia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

TEDA Football Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Meizhou Kejia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Meizhou Kejia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Meizhou Kejia in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2023, ended Tianjin Teda 1–1 Meizhou Kejia — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 41% | Meizhou Kejia 57%). Note also that Meizhou Kejia surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Tianjin Teda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.79 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.879 / defence 0.947 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.972 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Meizhou Kejia's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 56 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 57.

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 3.99 | Meizhou Kejia 4.40. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Meizhou Kejia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 80% (last 10 away games).

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