Wuhan Three Towns 4-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nantong Zhiyun travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 1W 7D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Nantong Zhiyun away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 60% of Nantong Zhiyun's (from Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 5–0 Nantong Zhiyun — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 70% and Nantong Zhiyun 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Nantong Zhiyun 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.034 / defence 0.994 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.730 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.225. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 57 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 23.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 25%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.26 | Draw 3.24 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantong Zhiyun 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.034 / def 0.994 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.730 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Wuhan Three Towns 4 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 44% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.03x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 57 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.24
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.16
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.89 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 9W 9D 5L from 23 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 3W 10D 10L across 23 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantong Zhiyun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 4W 5D 2L from their last 11 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 1W 6D 4L across their last 11 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.78 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Nantong Zhiyun in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Nantong Zhiyun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 9W 9D 5L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 10D 10L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.55 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 May 2023, when Wuhan Three Towns won Nantong Zhiyun 0-5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 June 2024: Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Nantong Zhiyun 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Wuhan Three Towns and 9% for Nantong Zhiyun.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 27% of games; Nantong Zhiyun in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 64% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 9% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 73% of Nantong Zhiyun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Nantong Zhiyun 4-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nantong Zhiyun outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.73 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 25%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Nantong Zhiyun 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.