Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shandong Luneng travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shandong Luneng away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 70% of Shandong Luneng's (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Shandong Luneng have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2023, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–3 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 5.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% versus Shandong Luneng 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.771 / defence 1.405 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.983 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.221. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shandong Luneng's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 56 games and Shandong Luneng's last 57.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 52%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.51 | Draw 3.81 | Shandong Luneng 1.94. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.771 / def 1.405 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.983 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Shandong Luneng xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 22% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 56 games and Shandong Luneng's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
22%
4.51
26%
3.81
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.69
Shandong Luneng xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
4%
24.37
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.69 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 12W 6D 38L from 56 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 35W 11D 10L across 56 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 8W 2D 18L from their last 28 home games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 12W 8D 8L across their last 28 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 38L in their last 56 games (0.75 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 35W 11D 10L in their last 56 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.93 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 25 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Dec 2022, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 8-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 46%, Shandong Luneng 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 54% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 61% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 54% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 64% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 26% | Shandong Luneng 52%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.