Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hangzhou Greentown face Dalian Aerbin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Dalian Aerbin at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dalian Aerbin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 57% versus Dalian Aerbin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Dalian Aerbin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.005 / defence 0.874 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.802 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Data: 56 Hangzhou Greentown games / 57 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 18%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Aerbin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Dalian Aerbin 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 / Dalian Aerbin 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.005 / def 0.874 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.802 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Dalian Aerbin xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 56% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.00) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.82
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.52
0.85
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
29.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.85 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 56 games, going 27W 17D 12L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.16 PPG from 56 outings (16W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 16W 5D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.23 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.96 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 41%, Dalian Aerbin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 59% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 52% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 59% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.85 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.87 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 26% | Dalian Aerbin 18%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 54%, Dalian Aerbin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.