SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SHANGHAI SIPG face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Meizhou Kejia at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 18 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 2–0 Meizhou Kejia — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 46% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Meizhou Kejia 57%). Note also that Meizhou Kejia surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while SHANGHAI SIPG recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.81 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.263 / defence 1.102 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.988 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.227. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack rating of 1.263 — their 2.81 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Meizhou Kejia's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output up. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 56 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 56.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 15%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.48 | Draw 5.77 | Meizhou Kejia 6.57. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.81 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% (Under 22%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.81 / Meizhou Kejia 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.263 / def 1.102 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.988 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Meizhou Kejia xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 67% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.81. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 56 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
67%
1.48
17%
5.77
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
4.14
1.33
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.77
17%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
6%
16.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
1%
108.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.33 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 36W 9D 11L from 56 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 24L across 56 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Meizhou Kejia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 18W 4D 6L from their last 28 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.36 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 9D 11L in their last 56 games (2.09 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.07 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Oct 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 7-0 Meizhou Kejia.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: Meizhou Kejia 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Meizhou Kejia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 54% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 46% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 54% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 74% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 23, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.81 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.33 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.26 / defence 1.10 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 1.43, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 15%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.