SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward SHANGHAI SIPG. A 0.90 PPG lead over Changchun Yatai (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Changchun Yatai in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Changchun Yatai — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 48% versus Changchun Yatai 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Changchun Yatai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / defence 1.077 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.965 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.231. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 58 games and Changchun Yatai's last 58.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 | Draw 4.18 | Changchun Yatai 4.00. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 / Changchun Yatai 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / def 1.077 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.965 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 51% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.16x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.96x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 58 games and Changchun Yatai's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.18
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.18
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
26.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.28 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 36W 10D 12L from 58 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 20L across 58 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 18W 5D 6L from their last 29 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 10D 12L in their last 58 games (2.03 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Changchun Yatai away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.03 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.24 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 18 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Changchun Yatai on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2025: Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Changchun Yatai 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 62% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 55% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 62% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 69% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Changchun Yatai 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.