SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 15 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward SHANGHAI SIPG. A 0.90 PPG lead over Changchun Yatai (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Changchun Yatai in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 3–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 48% versus Changchun Yatai 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Changchun Yatai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / defence 1.077 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.965 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.231. Data: 58 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 58 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Changchun Yatai 4.00. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 / Changchun Yatai 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.157 / def 1.077 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.965 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 15 September 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 51% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
Record (5 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.16x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.96x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.18
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.18
1.28
Changchun Yatai xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
26.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.28 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 36W 10D 12L from 58 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 20L across 58 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 18W 5D 6L from 29 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 10D 12L in their last 58 games (2.03 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Changchun Yatai away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.03 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.24 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Changchun Yatai 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 62% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 55% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 62% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.28 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 25%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Changchun Yatai 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.