Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Changchun Yatai.

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Analysis & Preview

Changchun Yatai travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Changchun Yatai have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.20 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Changchun Yatai — a Changchun Yatai win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 39% versus Changchun Yatai 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Changchun Yatai 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.71 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.003 / defence 1.179 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.085 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 23 games and Changchun Yatai's last 57.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.44 | Draw 4.03 | Changchun Yatai 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 60% (last 10 away games).

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