Henan Jianye 3-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Henan Jianye welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.40 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Henan Jianye's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's (from Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Henan Jianye 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 51% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 47% | Shanghai Shenhua 39%). Note also that Shanghai Shenhua surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Henan Jianye recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.27 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.992 / defence 0.802 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.974 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.218. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 57 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 58.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 27%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.31 | Draw 3.42 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.27 / Shanghai Shenhua 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.992 / def 0.802 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.974 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Shanghai Shenhua xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Henan Jianye 3 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 43% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 57 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.42
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.22
0.95
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.95 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 15D 19L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.61 PPG from 57 outings (25W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.47 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 9D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.21 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Shanghai Shenhua (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 25W 17D 15L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.75 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 3-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
7
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Shanghai Shenhua 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Henan Jianye) and 46% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Henan Jianye's games and 61% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 71% of Shanghai Shenhua's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shanghai Shenhua.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.27 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 0.95 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 27%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 47%, Shanghai Shenhua 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.47 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.