Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Wehda Club.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Wehda Club to Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Hilal Saudi FC — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Wehda Club's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 60% of Al Wehda Club's (from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Wehda Club's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Al Wehda Club, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2024, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–1 Al Wehda Club — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% versus Al Wehda Club 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al Wehda Club 63%). Note also that Al Wehda Club surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.957 / defence 0.788 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.889 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.443. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.957 — their 3.35 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output up. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Al Wehda Club's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 49 games and Al Wehda Club's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 81% | Draw 11% | Al Wehda Club 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.23 | Draw 9.10 | Al Wehda Club 13.28. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (3.35 / 1.01) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

Poisson projects 4.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Wehda Club's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Wehda Club 60% (last 10 away games).

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