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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 5W 0D 2L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 2.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.40 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Trading Patterns

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 88%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.01 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.010 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.526 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.400. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 50 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%.

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