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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 17 January 2025 at 15:40 UTC.

Form

Al Wehda Club (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 4W 1D 2L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Trading Data

Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 71% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 71% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.010 / defence 1.240 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.982 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.440. Data: 48 Al Wehda Club games / 14 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% BTTS from recent games.

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