Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hangzhou Greentown face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Qingdao Youth Island travel to Hangzhou Dragon Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Hangzhou Greentown 2–0 Qingdao Youth Island — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Qingdao Youth Island 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hangzhou Greentown surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Qingdao Youth Island have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Qingdao Youth Island surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Hangzhou Greentown recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.80 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.053 / defence 1.053 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.970 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.896 / away 1.412. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 30 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 30%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.22 | Draw 4.05 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.32. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Hangzhou Greentown 30 games, Qingdao Youth Island 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Hangzhou Dragon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.80 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.053 / def 1.053 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.970 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.896 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Qingdao Youth Island xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.05x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 30 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.05
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.24
1.44
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.44 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 24L across 60 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.33 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 14W 11D 5L from their last 30 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.33 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 28 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won Qingdao Youth Island 5-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2026: Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Qingdao Youth Island at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 63% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Youth Island Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 63% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Youth Island matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 87% of Qingdao Youth Island's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.80 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 45% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 30%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.