Uthai Thani 1-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 46%, yet in-form Bangkok United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bangkok United make the trip to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Uthai Thani's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Bangkok United have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bangkok United arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bangkok United edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Uthai Thani 2–1 Bangkok United — a Uthai Thani win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bangkok United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 58% versus Bangkok United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Bangkok United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.24 xG and Bangkok United 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.102 / defence 0.905 | Bangkok United attack 0.751 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.068. Bangkok United bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Uthai Thani's projected output down. Bangkok United's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 57 games and Bangkok United's last 57.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 46% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 20%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.15 | Draw 2.96 | Bangkok United 5.07. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bangkok United (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Bangkok United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 50% (last 10 home games) | Bangkok United 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 46% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Uthai Thani 1.24 / Bangkok United 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.102 / def 0.905 | Bangkok United attack 0.751 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Bangkok United xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United FAQs
What time does Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 46% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Uthai Thani and Bangkok United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (1.10) and Bangkok United's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (0.75x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Uthai Thani's last 57 games and Bangkok United's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
46%
2.15
34%
2.96
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
1.96
0.72
Bangkok United xG
2.15
46%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.72 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 16W 19D 22L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Bangkok United, meanwhile, have gone 33W 15D 9L across 57 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bangkok United by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 11W 10D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bangkok United's away record stands at 14W 8D 6L across their last 28 away games, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.75 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
Uthai Thani (Home) vs Bangkok United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Uthai Thani
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United Form FAQs
What form are Uthai Thani and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 16W 19D 22L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 33W 15D 9L in their last 57 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.54 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bangkok United won Uthai Thani 1-4 Bangkok United on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
4
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Bangkok United?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Uthai Thani have won 1, Bangkok United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Bangkok United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Bangkok United 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 57%, Bangkok United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 43% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 46%; Bangkok United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Bangkok United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Uthai Thani and Bangkok United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 43% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Uthai Thani and Bangkok United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 43% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Bangkok United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 61% of Bangkok United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Uthai Thani and Bangkok United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.24 xG and Bangkok United 0.72 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Bangkok United attack 0.75 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 46% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 20%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 47%, Bangkok United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bangkok United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.