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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ratchaburi travel to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 3 for Ratchaburi and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Chiangrai United winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 53% versus Ratchaburi 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 42% | Ratchaburi 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Ratchaburi 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.874 / defence 1.060 | Ratchaburi attack 1.599 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.087. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.599 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Chiangrai United games / 57 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 22% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 51%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 1.96. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.

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