Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Muangthong United travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Prachuap are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 3, Muangthong United 5, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Muangthong United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 46% | Muangthong United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 2.09 xG and Muangthong United 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.102 / defence 0.942 | Muangthong United attack 0.840 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.151. Muangthong United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Prachuap games / 52 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 14%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Muangthong United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Muangthong United lead the H2H ledger, but Prachuap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 40% | Muangthong United 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Prachuap 2.09 / Muangthong United 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.102 / def 0.942 | Muangthong United attack 0.840 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Muangthong United xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Muangthong United kick off?
Prachuap vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Prachuap 2 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Prachuap vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Muangthong United part of?
Prachuap vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 63% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Prachuap and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Muangthong United?
Record (9 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 5W.
What form are Prachuap and Muangthong United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.10) and Muangthong United's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.31
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.00
0.91
Muangthong United xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
58.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.91 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap's recent record stands at 19W 18D 15L from 52 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 24L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.44 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 14W 9D 3L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 4W 7D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 19W 18D 15L in their last 52 games (1.44 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Muangthong United away?
Prachuap's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.96 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 46%, Muangthong United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 54% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Muangthong United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Prachuap's recent matches and 58% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 54% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Muangthong United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Muangthong United 2-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.09 xG and Muangthong United 0.91 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Muangthong United attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 14%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Muangthong United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.44 PPG, Muangthong United 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.