Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi meet at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Kanchanaburi (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Ayutthaya FC's favour (1.60 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ayutthaya FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kanchanaburi in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 1W, Kanchanaburi 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kanchanaburi — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 64% versus Kanchanaburi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 46% | Kanchanaburi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.705 / defence 1.200 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.735 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.141. Ayutthaya FC's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ayutthaya FC games / 23 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Kanchanaburi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ayutthaya FC 70% | Kanchanaburi 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.32 / Kanchanaburi 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.705 / def 1.200 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.735 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kanchanaburi xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Ayutthaya FC 0 - 2 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 42% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Kanchanaburi 0W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.70x the league average against Kanchanaburi's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.73x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
42%
2.41
32%
3.11
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Kanchanaburi xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.01 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 8D 7L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi's form line: 2W 9D 11L from 22 games, 0.68 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ayutthaya FC are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kanchanaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L). That actually lags their 1.32 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 0W 4D 7L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 0.95 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 9D 11L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.91 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Kanchanaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Ayutthaya FC, 64% for Kanchanaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ayutthaya FC) and 46% (Kanchanaburi).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Kanchanaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 64% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 46% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kanchanaburi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi beat Ayutthaya FC 0-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Kanchanaburi outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kanchanaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 46%, Kanchanaburi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Kanchanaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.