🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Kanchanaburi encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ayutthaya FC and Kanchanaburi meet at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Current Form

Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.

Kanchanaburi (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Ayutthaya FC's favour (1.60 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ayutthaya FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kanchanaburi in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 1W, Kanchanaburi 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Ayutthaya FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Kanchanaburi — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 64% versus Kanchanaburi 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 46% | Kanchanaburi 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.32 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.705 / defence 1.200 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.735 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.141. Ayutthaya FC's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ayutthaya FC games / 23 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 32% | Kanchanaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Kanchanaburi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ayutthaya FC 70% | Kanchanaburi 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights