🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Chiangrai United take on Bangkok United.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Chiangrai United welcome Bangkok United to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chiangrai United — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 3D 4L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bangkok United have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Bangkok United's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bangkok United, who boast 8 victories compared to 0 for Chiangrai United.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bangkok United have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Bangkok United in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 54% versus Bangkok United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 43% | Bangkok United 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 0.76 xG and Bangkok United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.759 / defence 1.156 | Bangkok United attack 0.819 / defence 0.681. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.095. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.681 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Chiangrai United games / 56 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 23% | Draw 39% | Bangkok United 38%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 4.35 | Draw 2.56 | Bangkok United 2.63. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Bangkok United 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights