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Poisson model favours Buriram United (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Buriram United.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Buriram United to 80th Birthday Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at 80th Birthday Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Buriram United away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Buriram United have the better historical record — 7 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Buriram United in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Buriram United 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 xG and Buriram United 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.041 | Buriram United attack 1.426 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.152. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 51 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 53%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 1.89. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Buriram United 70%.

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