🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Prachuap at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Uthai Thani encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Prachuap welcome Uthai Thani to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Prachuap's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 1, Uthai Thani 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–4 with Uthai Thani winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Prachuap trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Uthai Thani trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Uthai Thani 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 47% | Uthai Thani 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.58 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.008 / defence 0.847 | Uthai Thani attack 0.814 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.050. Data: 58 Prachuap games / 58 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Prachuap 56% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 15%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Uthai Thani lead the H2H ledger, but Prachuap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Uthai Thani 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights