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Poisson model rates Port FC at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Port FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Port FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Port FC, 2 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Port FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Port FC in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Lamphun Warrior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.09 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.307 / defence 0.721 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.863 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.148. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Port FC games / 52 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 10%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Lamphun Warrior 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.

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