Rayong FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 53%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lamphun Warrior travel to Rayong Provincial Stadium to take on Rayong FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rayong FC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rayong FC at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rayong FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lamphun Warrior are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Rayong FC 2–2 Lamphun Warrior — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 73% and Lamphun Warrior 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 61% | Lamphun Warrior 48%). Note also that Lamphun Warrior surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Rayong FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.66 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.143 / defence 1.073 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.815 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.068. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 56 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 57.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 53% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 19%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.90 | Draw 3.55 | Lamphun Warrior 5.17. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 53% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rayong FC 1.66 / Lamphun Warrior 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.143 / def 1.073 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.815 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lamphun Warrior xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior FAQs
What time does Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 53% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (1.14) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rayong FC's last 56 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.55
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.59
0.94
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
27.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.94 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 16D 24L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 12W 24D 20L from 56 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.14 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayong FC have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 9D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 11D 12L from their last 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Rayong FC (Home) vs Lamphun Warrior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayong FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior Form FAQs
What form are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 24D 20L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2026, when Lamphun Warrior won Rayong FC 0-4 Lamphun Warrior.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
2
Draws
3
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Rayong FC 0-4 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 78%, Lamphun Warrior at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rayong FC) and 44% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Rayong FC's games and 56% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Rayong FC's recent games and 44% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 63% of Lamphun Warrior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.66 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 53% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 19%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 61%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.14 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.