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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Muangthong United have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Chonburi FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Muangthong United (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chonburi FC lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Chonburi FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Muangthong United — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Muangthong United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 44% | Muangthong United 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.79 xG and Muangthong United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.040 / defence 1.061 | Muangthong United attack 0.916 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.069. Data: 27 Chonburi FC games / 57 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 53% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 20%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 5.00. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Muangthong United 50% BTTS from recent games.

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