Kanchanaburi 1-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Buriram United travel to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to take on Kanchanaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kanchanaburi — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi's home record at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kanchanaburi, 1 for Buriram United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Buriram United in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 52% versus Buriram United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 44% | Buriram United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 0.87 xG and Buriram United 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.701 / defence 1.374 | Buriram United attack 1.500 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.069. Kanchanaburi's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.500 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Kanchanaburi games / 56 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 12% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 66%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 8.33 | Draw 4.55 | Buriram United 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kanchanaburi 40% | Buriram United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 12% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Kanchanaburi 0.87 / Buriram United 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.701 / def 1.374 | Buriram United attack 1.500 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Buriram United xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 12% chance of winning, Buriram United a 66% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Buriram United?
Record (1 meetings): Kanchanaburi 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Buriram United in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kanchanaburi's attack rating (0.70) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Kanchanaburi's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
12%
8.38
22%
4.55
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
3.08
2.20
Buriram United xG
8.38
12%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
11%
9.06
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
1%
75.89
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 2.20 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 4W 10D 13L from 27 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 3D 2L across 27 games — 2.56 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kanchanaburi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kanchanaburi have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 9W 2D 1L across 12 trips, a 2.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kanchanaburi are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.89 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 4W 10D 13L in their last 27 games (0.81 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 22W 3D 2L in their last 27 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.17 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Kanchanaburi or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kanchanaburi have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Buriram United in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kanchanaburi and Buriram United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kanchanaburi
0
Draws
2
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Buriram United?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 0, Buriram United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Kanchanaburi 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 42%, Buriram United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kanchanaburi and 75% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Buriram United in 33%; Kanchanaburi have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Kanchanaburi's recent matches and 67% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kanchanaburi's matches and 75% of Buriram United's.
Do Kanchanaburi and Buriram United tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kanchanaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Kanchanaburi 1-3 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 0.87 xG and Buriram United 2.20 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Buriram United attack 1.50 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 12% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 66%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 44%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.