🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Buriram United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rayong FC face Buriram United.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Buriram United travel to Rayong Provincial Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 April 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rayong FC at Rayong Provincial Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Buriram United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rayong FC have won 0, Buriram United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Rayong FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Buriram United trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 74% and Buriram United 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 60% | Buriram United 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.099 / defence 1.081 | Buriram United attack 1.559 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.071. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.559 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Rayong FC games / 57 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayong FC 27% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Buriram United 2.17. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights