Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 57% versus Ratchaburi 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 48% | Ratchaburi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.868 / defence 0.926 | Ratchaburi attack 1.573 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.090. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.573 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Sukhothai FC games / 56 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.19 / Ratchaburi 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.868 / def 0.926 | Ratchaburi attack 1.573 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 26% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (7 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.29
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.59 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 19D 23L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 30W 12D 14L from 56 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (13W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 14W 4D 9L from 27 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.98 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 19D 23L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 30W 12D 14L in their last 56 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.74 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 67%, Ratchaburi at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Sukhothai FC and 67% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sukhothai FC's games and 67% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Ratchaburi attack 1.57 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 48%, Ratchaburi 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.