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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 57% versus Ratchaburi 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 48% | Ratchaburi 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.868 / defence 0.926 | Ratchaburi attack 1.573 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.090. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.573 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Sukhothai FC games / 56 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.

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