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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Rayong Provincial Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rayong FC at Rayong Provincial Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lamphun Warrior are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Rayong FC trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Lamphun Warrior trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 73% and Lamphun Warrior 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 61% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.66 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.143 / defence 1.073 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.815 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.068. Data: 56 Rayong FC games / 57 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayong FC 53% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 19%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 5.26. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.

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