Rayong FC 2-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rayong FC face Kanchanaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kanchanaburi make the trip to Rayong Provincial Stadium to face Rayong FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Rayong FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rayong FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rayong FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kanchanaburi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Rayong FC, 1.20 for Kanchanaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Kanchanaburi's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Rayong FC's games and 70% of Kanchanaburi's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Rayong FC, 0 for Kanchanaburi and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Rayong FC 1–1 Kanchanaburi — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kanchanaburi half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 72% and Kanchanaburi 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 52% | Kanchanaburi 44%). Note also that Kanchanaburi surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Rayong FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.133 / defence 1.068 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.819 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.124. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 53 games and Kanchanaburi's last 25.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.72 | Draw 3.91 | Kanchanaburi 6.16. The model has a clear lean to Rayong FC (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Kanchanaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Kanchanaburi 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Rayong FC 1.97 / Kanchanaburi 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.133 / def 1.068 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.819 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kanchanaburi xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi FAQs
What time does Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Rayong FC 2 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 58% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (1.13) and Kanchanaburi's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.82x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Rayong FC's last 53 games and Kanchanaburi's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.91
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.95
0.98
Kanchanaburi xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
44.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.98 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 8W 8D 9L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 11L across 25 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rayong FC by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kanchanaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 6W 4D 2L from their last 12 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across their last 12 away games, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayong FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Rayong FC (Home) vs Kanchanaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayong FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi Form FAQs
What form are Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 4W 10D 11L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayong FC have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Rayong FC 2-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 67%, Kanchanaburi 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rayong FC) and 42% (Kanchanaburi).
On the defensive side: Rayong FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kanchanaburi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 58% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayong FC's recent games and 42% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Kanchanaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 75% of Kanchanaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Kanchanaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Kanchanaburi 2-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 52%, Kanchanaburi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.