Kanchanaburi 2-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kanchanaburi vs Chonburi FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Kanchanaburi host Chonburi FC at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Kanchanaburi at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chonburi FC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Chonburi FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kanchanaburi's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kanchanaburi, 0 for Chonburi FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended Kanchanaburi 1–1 Chonburi FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Kanchanaburi in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 70%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 54% versus Chonburi FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 46% | Chonburi FC 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.26 xG and Chonburi FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.703 / defence 1.461 | Chonburi FC attack 0.941 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.044. Kanchanaburi's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Chonburi FC's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kanchanaburi's projected output up. Kanchanaburi's defence rating of 1.461 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chonburi FC's projected output up. Data: built from Kanchanaburi's last 28 games and Chonburi FC's last 28.

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 31% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 3.24 | Draw 3.32 | Chonburi FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kanchanaburi's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kanchanaburi 50% (last 10 home games) | Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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