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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Rayong FC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Rayong FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Ratchaburi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Rayong FC, with 0 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2025, ended 4–2 with Ratchaburi winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ratchaburi and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Rayong FC in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Rayong FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 59% | Rayong FC 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.028 / defence 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.042. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Ratchaburi games / 58 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Rayong FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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