Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to 80th Birthday Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at 80th Birthday Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Nakhon Ratchasima FC's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sukhothai FC in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W, Sukhothai FC 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% versus Sukhothai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48% | Sukhothai FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.710 / defence 0.975 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.050. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 58 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.92 | Draw 3.03 | Sukhothai FC 6.67. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 / Sukhothai FC 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.710 / def 0.975 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.611 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Sukhothai FC xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 52% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 15% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 2 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.71) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.61x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
52%
1.93
33%
3.02
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
1.97
0.62
Sukhothai FC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
4%
25.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.62 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 17D 29L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.05 PPG from 58 outings (14W 19D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.05 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.48 points per game from 29 outings (1W 11D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Current Season
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 12W 17D 29L in their last 58 games (0.91 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 19D 25L in their last 58 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.17 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 59%, Sukhothai FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 41% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Sukhothai FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 48% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 41% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.62 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.97 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 15%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%, Sukhothai FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.