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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chonburi FC 1.50 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 55% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 45% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.41 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.881 / defence 0.998 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.741 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Data: 29 Chonburi FC games / 59 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.56. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

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