Kanchanaburi 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kanchanaburi welcome Ratchaburi to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 2W 3D 5L at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kanchanaburi's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kanchanaburi have won 0, Ratchaburi 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Kanchanaburi in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 55% versus Ratchaburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 48% | Ratchaburi 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.02 xG and Ratchaburi 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.747 / defence 1.511 | Ratchaburi attack 1.481 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.027. Kanchanaburi's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.481 — the away xG of 2.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Kanchanaburi games / 59 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 14% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 64%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Ratchaburi 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 50% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.

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