Kanchanaburi 0-4 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kanchanaburi face Chiangrai United.

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Analysis

Chiangrai United make the trip to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to face Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Kanchanaburi (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Kanchanaburi have posted 2W 5D 2L from their last 9 home games — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 9 home games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Chiangrai United have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 7D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Chiangrai United edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Kanchanaburi 0–2 Chiangrai United — a Chiangrai United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Kanchanaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kanchanaburi 59% and Chiangrai United 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 46% | Chiangrai United 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kanchanaburi surrender their half-time lead 75% of the time, while Chiangrai United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.58 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.845 / defence 1.198 | Chiangrai United attack 1.144 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.125. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kanchanaburi's projected output up. Data: built from Kanchanaburi's last 22 games and Chiangrai United's last 51.

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 37% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 36%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 2.67 | Draw 3.77 | Chiangrai United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kanchanaburi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kanchanaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kanchanaburi's last 9 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kanchanaburi 56% (last 9 home games) | Chiangrai United 100% (last 10 away games).

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