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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Kanchanaburi encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Uthai Thani welcome Kanchanaburi to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 3D 4L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Kanchanaburi — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Uthai Thani carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kanchanaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Uthai Thani, 0 for Kanchanaburi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Uthai Thani trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Kanchanaburi trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 71% and Kanchanaburi 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Kanchanaburi 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.37 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.221 / defence 0.953 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.706 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.142. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Uthai Thani games / 21 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 72% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 9%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Kanchanaburi 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Uthai Thani 60% | Kanchanaburi 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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