🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Prachuap make the trip to 80th Birthday Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 3D 5L at 80th Birthday Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Prachuap's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Ratchasima FC lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Prachuap — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Prachuap 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Prachuap 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.822 / defence 0.941 | Prachuap attack 0.809 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.153. Data: 50 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 51 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Prachuap 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights