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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Chonburi FC welcome Ayutthaya FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.60 (Ayutthaya FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ayutthaya FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Chonburi FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 62% and Ayutthaya FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 43% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.079 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.983 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.130. Data: 21 Chonburi FC games / 21 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 30% | Ayutthaya FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Ayutthaya FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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