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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Chiangrai United welcome Chonburi FC to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Leo Chiangrai Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Leo Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.40 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 1 for Chonburi FC and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 70% and Chonburi FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 30% | Chonburi FC 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Chonburi FC 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.752 / defence 0.853 | Chonburi FC attack 0.766 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.120. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Chiangrai United games / 20 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Chonburi FC 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Chiangrai United dominate the H2H record, yet Chonburi FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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