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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani encounter.

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Full Analysis

Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Ratchaburi, 1.50 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Ratchaburi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 56% versus Uthai Thani 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Uthai Thani 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.53 xG and Uthai Thani 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.904 / defence 0.879 | Uthai Thani attack 0.932 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.125. Data: 50 Ratchaburi games / 51 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 21%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 4.76. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 30% | Uthai Thani 80%.

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