Kanchanaburi 1-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Buriram United at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kanchanaburi vs Buriram United encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Buriram United travel to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to take on Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Kanchanaburi — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Kanchanaburi's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Buriram United have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Kanchanaburi, 1 for Buriram United and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Kanchanaburi 1–3 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Buriram United in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 52% versus Buriram United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 44% | Buriram United 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kanchanaburi surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Buriram United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 0.87 xG and Buriram United 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.701 / defence 1.374 | Buriram United attack 1.500 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.069. Kanchanaburi's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.500, which lifts their away xG to 2.20. Kanchanaburi's defence rating of 1.374 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Buriram United's projected output up. Data: built from Kanchanaburi's last 27 games and Buriram United's last 56.

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 12% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 66%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 8.38 | Draw 4.55 | Buriram United 1.51. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (66%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kanchanaburi's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kanchanaburi 40% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 60% (last 10 away games).

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