Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Ratchaburi travel to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chiangrai United's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Ratchaburi's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Chiangrai United, 3 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 8 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Dec 2025, ended Chiangrai United 2–1 Ratchaburi — a Chiangrai United win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 53% versus Ratchaburi 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 42% | Ratchaburi 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Ratchaburi have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Ratchaburi 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.874 / defence 1.060 | Ratchaburi attack 1.599 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.087. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.599, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 57 games and Ratchaburi's last 57.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 22% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 51%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 4.57 | Draw 3.67 | Ratchaburi 1.96. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.17 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 away games).

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