Ayutthaya FC 1-3 Prachuap – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Prachuap at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Prachuap encounter.

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Analysis

Prachuap make the trip to Ayutthaya Province Stadium to face Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Ayutthaya FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Prachuap (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 8.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Ayutthaya FC 4–4 Prachuap — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 8.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Prachuap — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 56% versus Prachuap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ayutthaya FC 41% | Prachuap 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ayutthaya FC surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Prachuap have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 0.90 xG and Prachuap 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.604 / defence 1.292 | Prachuap attack 0.891 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.066. Ayutthaya FC's attack rating of 0.604 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Ayutthaya FC's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Prachuap's projected output up. Data: built from Ayutthaya FC's last 27 games and Prachuap's last 57.

Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 24% | Draw 35% | Prachuap 41%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 4.13 | Draw 2.87 | Prachuap 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ayutthaya FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 60% (last 10 away games).

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