Osters IF 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees IK brage travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 0.96 xG and IK brage 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.899 / defence 1.255 | IK brage attack 0.672 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 0.968. Data: 6 Osters IF games / 6 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 36% | Draw 35% | IK brage 28%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | IK brage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 36% | Draw 35% | IK brage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Osters IF 0.96 / IK brage 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.899 / def 1.255 | IK brage attack 0.672 / def 1.154 | league avg home 0.928 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.82
IK brage xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs IK brage kick off?
Osters IF vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Osters IF 1 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Osters IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs IK brage part of?
Osters IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 36% chance of winning, IK brage a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Osters IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.90x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
36%
2.74
35%
2.85
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Osters IF xG
Total xG
1.78
0.82
IK brage xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 13.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Osters IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.82 for IK brage, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and IK brage runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Osters IF
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Osters IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Osters IF 1-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.96 xG and IK brage 0.82 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against IK brage attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 36% | Draw 35% | IK brage 28%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.