IK brage 1-2 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as IK brage take on Norrby IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Norrby IF meet at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.78 xG and Norrby IF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.679 / defence 1.051 | Norrby IF attack 0.784 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 0.851. IK brage's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 IK brage games / 5 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 41% | Norrby IF 27%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.12 | Draw 2.44 | Norrby IF 3.70. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.48. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.48 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Norrby IF's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 41% | Norrby IF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG IK brage 0.78 / Norrby IF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.679 / def 1.051 | Norrby IF attack 0.784 / def 1.189 | league avg home 0.959 / away 0.851 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Norrby IF xG
29%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Norrby IF kick off?
IK brage vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Norrby IF?
IK brage 1 - 2 Norrby IF.
Where is IK brage vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Norrby IF part of?
IK brage vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 32% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 27% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both IK brage and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Norrby IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IK brage's attack rating (0.68) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.78x) against IK brage's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
41%
2.43
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
IK brage xG
Total xG
1.48
0.70
Norrby IF xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.8 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.4%.
How many goals are IK brage and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for IK brage and 0.70 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 1.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IK brage
1
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Norrby IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Norrby IF 0-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Norrby IF?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.78 xG and Norrby IF 0.70 xG, a combined 1.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Norrby IF outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.68 / defence 1.05 against Norrby IF attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 32% | Draw 41% | Norrby IF 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Norrby IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.