Jonkopings Sodra 3-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vapenvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.147 / defence 1.017 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.864 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 0.945. Data: 6 Jonkopings Sodra games / 6 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 25%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Landskrona BoIS 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 / Landskrona BoIS 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.147 / def 1.017 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.864 / def 1.142 | league avg home 0.919 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Landskrona BoIS xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Jonkopings Sodra 3 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 44% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (1.15) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.86x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.16
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.83 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jonkopings Sodra cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Landskrona BoIS 3-1 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 25%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.